IA's

Grocery Inflation Index

Impact Analytics Grocery Inflation Index (IA – GII) is an attempt to track and understand price movements of key grocery items across the US on a higher frequency basis than the official Govt reporting. We do this by capturing price information from the major grocers across multiple geographies in the US on a weekly basis. The Index leverages Impact Analytics’ capability to capture a vast amount of public data and generate valuable actionable insights for our clients.

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Pricing insights from the recent weeks: Early signs of price moderation in the Food-at-home basket

Overall Grocery price index has plateaued in April after a rapid rise in the month of March. After two consecutive weeks of moderating trend, the prices show a relatively stable trend in the week gone by.
The 'cereals, bakery products, 'non-alcoholic beverages', and 'other food at home' categories have registered a marginal increase of avg ~0.2%. On the other hand, the prices of 'dairy and related products', 'fruits and vegetables', and 'meats,poultry,fish and eggs' categories registered a slight decrease of avg ~0.1%.

An unprecedented increase in food prices over the past year

Inflation in the overall food-at-home segment (incl. grocery store and supermarket food purchases) rose by 8.9% over the last 12 months, with the largest increase of 13% observed in the meat, poultry, fish, and eggs segment. 'Cereals & bakery products' and 'fruits & vegetables' segments showed significantly higher inflation than nonalcoholic beverages, beverage materials, and other food at home. A host of reasons such as unprecedented fuel price hikes (fuel prices have gone by 42% over the past year), global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages with a sustained increase in demand, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the recent outbreak of avian influenza could help in understand this rise in inflation levels.

Where are the food prices headed: the trend in the coming days

Our estimates show that the prices have even climbed higher during Mar-Apr'22 and recorded one of the steepest months for grocery price rise in recent history. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs segment, along with dairy and related products segments have seen 1.6% and 2.7% price increases month over month! while the cereals and bakery segment has seen a price moderation.

Unhealthy and Discretionary Foods have become dearer

Within the food at home category, while the discretionary basket (consisting of non-staple food such as candy, carbonated drinks, etc) increased by 16% higher than the staples, the non-healthy basket (cakes, cookies, cakes, rolls, sugary drinks, etc) increased by 8% compared to healthy food. Similarly, non-plant-based food prices have increased by 4.8% compared to plant-based food.

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